tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post5676473614983068371..comments2024-03-18T01:00:57.108+05:30Comments on Seek truth from facts: Biases in the second Asianet-C Fore opinion polls in KeralaR. Ramakumarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04712323842923650748noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-70862051319463847352011-04-04T10:48:08.092+05:302011-04-04T10:48:08.092+05:30@Rajan:
Thanks, Rajan, will read it...Please feel...@Rajan:<br /><br />Thanks, Rajan, will read it...Please feel free to reproduce.R. Ramakumarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-45070488313453030582011-04-04T10:24:05.709+05:302011-04-04T10:24:05.709+05:30As usual,a very good incisive analysis. Can I repr...As usual,a very good incisive analysis. Can I reproduce this in my own blog?<br /><br />I did a passing critique too in my blog. This is my latest post:<br /><br />Which way will SHG Vote Swing?: Battle for Tamil Nadu<br /><br />In 1994, Chandra Babu Naidu of the Telegu Desam was quick to grasp the huge potential of SHGs to swing tightly fought electoral contests. He then supported the anti-arrack (local liquor) agitation that was spearheaded by Self-Help Group (SHG)s and rode the accompanying wave that catapulted him as Chief Minister of the state for two terms.<br /><br />At least 1/6th voters in Tamil Nadu are members of Self-Help Groups (SHGs). There are an estimated 500,000 to 800,000 SHGs within the state with each unit having a membership of 20. Collectively, they comprise half of Tamil Nadu's roughly 30-40 million of the state's total electorate. Little wonder that the two main alliances in the state are bending backwards to woo SHGs. The DMK alliance promised each member of a SHG Rs 5,000-10,000 as a grant. Its rival, the AIADMK promised Rs 1 million to each SHG, three fourth as loans at soft interest rates and the remainder as a subsidy. <br /><br />So how will SHGs vote in the current Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections? To answer this question, we bring you an exclusive survey, the first of its kind, to know what way this section will swing, conducted by Bhakther Solomon, DPG, Chennai.<br /><br />Read more: http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.com/2011/04/which-way-will-shg-vote-swing-battle.htmlRajan Alexanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07496301416048254072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-36462385785740114872011-04-03T01:13:13.146+05:302011-04-03T01:13:13.146+05:30If you want to know my political orientation it is...If you want to know my political orientation it is BJP and i am also not optimistic of its chances of winning a seat (maybe Nemom).<br /><br />If you look at it the First Asianet survey predicting 18 % for others is wrong . This puts a question mark about their sampling technique. <br /><br />But the second survey predicts 46% to UDF and 41 to LDF. With a margin of error of 3% this seems reasonable considering UDF will sweep Malappuram , Kottayam and Idukki by big margins.<br /><br />Moving onto variance with other surveys , India Today has predicted a land slide for UDF , the track record of IMEG is not encouraging ,(despite huge sample they predicted 6-9 seats for LDF in 2009, 5 for udf in 2004 , got 2006 spot on though)<br /><br />While the number of seats is difficult to predict , in a tight race alliance strength matter , plus history of our electorate UDF seems headed for a victory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-18996670666917328742011-04-02T23:12:45.406+05:302011-04-02T23:12:45.406+05:30@anonymous:
I reserve my curiousness about who yo...@anonymous:<br /><br />I reserve my curiousness about who you are!<br /><br />The point about Rajeev Chandrasekhar is an argument that has come up. I just stated it as one criticism in the air. <br /><br />Yes, the number of seats for BJP comes down from 5 to 2, but the vote share appears to have gone up.<br /><br />In 2009, the Left lost Christian vote, despite the KC (J). So, the loss of KC (J) after 2009 doesnt mean much.<br /><br />Finally, I do not think even by vote shares, Asianet-C Fore is right. Yes, the conversion of votes to seats is problematic, but I think the problem begins much earlier i.e., from vote shares itself.<br /><br />Of course, fingers crossed! :)R. Ramakumarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04712323842923650748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-12017698795742148822011-04-02T21:55:18.836+05:302011-04-02T21:55:18.836+05:30I think your findings are partly true. The reason ...I think your findings are partly true. The reason for bias Rajeev Chandrashekhar and BJP has damaged your reasoning. basically as per you reasoning bjp has been promoted but what it says is 0-5 seats and 0-2 seats which isnot much.<br /><br />the social base of UDFis much bigger ,chrisstians+muslim+nair. Loss of KCJ means figures for 2009 is not comparable for christians.<br /><br />The variations for social groups like Nair's at 90% confidence level is not stastically significant.<br /><br />My personal view is that the second asianet survey is relatively correct in terms of voteshare but not in terms of seats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-23292214266228467342011-04-02T18:17:28.666+05:302011-04-02T18:17:28.666+05:30@anonymous: I will be glad if you give me similar ...@anonymous: I will be glad if you give me similar caste-wise break-ups for 2010 elections. I could not get it, and NES has not covered Kerala in 2010. <br /><br />You must also remember that 2004 was a pro-LDF election and 2009 was a pro-UDF election. So, I have taken both extremes in this comparison. In fact, in the 2010 elections, the LDF had improved its position compared to 2009. <br /><br />Your cynicism appears interesting, but hollow. People name-call (like your calling this yellow paper pole) when they are exhausted of all responses. Look for a better reason to thrash me, brother!R. Ramakumarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-19676172730690682442011-04-02T17:47:04.249+05:302011-04-02T17:47:04.249+05:30kure kashtapettallo ramkumar sakhaave... enthayalu...kure kashtapettallo ramkumar sakhaave... enthayalum nalla, language am impressed. bt oru kuzhappam, i think u missed the 2010 electn :D... LDF-inu chaayvu ullathu mathram angu parayathe. orumathiri 3rd yellow papers pole...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2664850319166330515.post-2870133667518816292011-04-02T17:46:47.458+05:302011-04-02T17:46:47.458+05:30This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com